Duterte's forign policy: Goodbye Uncle Sam?
President Rodrigo Duterte’s international debut has not looked good since he started to curse world leaders and organizations blatantly. By now, everyone knows he is far from being like any world leader – he is neither diplomatic nor polite and he does not care a bit if he looks good or says the right things. Truly, he has remained to be a constant nightmare to his spokesperson and to the Presidential Communications Operations Office, who, by the looks of it, are not having such a great time trying to explain to the media that the President “didn’t really mean this and was just misinterpreted in that.” Since he claimed the presidency, we have very rarely woken up to a day where President Duterte has missed the headlines because of his controversial, unrestrained and unscripted pronouncements, and his immensely provocative language.
A pronouncement by Mr. Duterte put everyone in shock and at some cases, in amusement. On Sept. 10, after getting back to Davao from the ASEAN summit in Laos and his working visit in Indonesia, Duterte said he wants an independent foreign policy and wants to do away with the United States of America. Duterte said the Philippines will “observe and must insist on the time-honored principle of sovereignty, sovereign equality, non-interference and the commitment of peaceful settlements of dispute that will serve our people and protect the interests of our country."
He also said he is ready to “break-up” with the long-term ally and is seeking new relations with Russia and China despite the Philippine’s maritime dispute with the latter over the South China Sea. He does not want Filipino troops to conduct joint patrols on the South China Sea with Americans because he does not want China upset and it could start an armed conflict with the communist nation.
Duterte said he wants the American Military troops to leave Mindanao because he claims that Americans are the ones who trigger the Moro insurgency and terrorism. He also said the next war games between the Philippines and the US, the first during his term, would be the last. The last military exercises between the Filipino and American troops, which seek to enhance further the defense capabilities of Filipino troops, were held in April under former President Benigno Aquino III. The next would be this October.
In 1951, the Philippines signed a Mutual Defense Treaty with US. Years after, the Visiting Forces Agreement, which started the military exercises and war games popularly known as the “Balikatan exercises”, was signed in 1998 under former President Fidel Ramos. The two parties also signed an executive agreement called the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which allows Washington to send more of their troops to the Philippines. However, after his visit to Vietnam, Duterte said he wants to review and then eventually pull out the EDCA, saying Aquino did not sign it.
In terms of financial assistance, the US is expected to give 188 million dollars to the Philippines. In 2015, the country received a total of 236 million dollars from the US. The US State Department also recently gave 6.7 million dollars to stimulate law enforcement in the Philippines.
In relation to financial aid, the European Union, which Duterte also gave the middle finger to, gives the Philippines an annual assistance of 65 million dollars.
Is President Duterte really willing to give up all these?
The Philippines, a third world country, one that is overburdened with selfish politicians and graft and corruption cases, one that is often than not aggravated by natural calamities, needs all the assistance it could get from its allies.
President Duterte is brave to have risked all of these for new alliances, which appear to be a little uncertain and brittle.
In Duterte’s defense, he once acknowledged that the country does need the US, but later on said he does not care if the US withdraws its assistance to the Philippines. He said the US is not willing to protect the Philippines in case China decides to wage war or attack Batanes anyway. Although the US has been very supportive of the Philippines, although there are military exercises, it is in the US constitution that they cannot declare war unless their Congress approves it. Duterte said before China goes into an armed conflict with the Philippines, he is already trying to prevent casualties. Now with Russia, he says he wants to be allies with countries who have mutual “respect” with him. Duterte made it clear that he is seeking economic and not military alliances with the two, but is that is the case, why would he push away allies that are already generously supporting the Philippines? Duterte clearly does not want his ego, dignity and principles crashed, but is ready to exacerbate the country’s economy by driving and scaring away investors.
Duterte’s philosophy seems like he wants to befriend the enemy and terminate old friends. But in foreign relations, former Philippine foreign secretary Albert del Rosario once said, “You try to get as many friends as possible. You don't get one friend at the expense of another friend.” And it makes perfect sense. Invest and you take care of investments. Make investors happy and keep them while looking for more potential investors. China and Russia are not even offering the country anything concrete and beneficial yet.
Senate Minority Leader Ralph Recto, on Sept. 27, told reporters that Duterte’s harsh, too straightforward words might scare off current and future investors. He said Duterte should treat allies well to avoid a chilling effect with the Western investors.
Duterte’s foreign policy and his way of talking, which he defended, may put the country’s economy in a probable loss of many of its investors and benefits. It is bad enough that the country missed a bilateral meeting with the US or that royalties of Belgium cancelled a state visit to the Philippines because of the recent headlines Duterte made. It is bad enough the Philippine peso is weakening, plunging to a 7-year low with the US dollar. It is bad enough that the numbers of Dutertards in tis country is rising and bad enough that the comments section in social media are close to be being cancerous. This country cannot lose anything anymore.
Started out as tirades
Duterte, in one interview, said he does not want to pick any kind of fights with anyone, but contrary to everything he is doing, firing shots and throwing away middle fingers, it seems as if fights are all Duterte is looking for.
Duterte is willing to terminate the long and warm ties with the US to find new allies –those who would not criticize his approach on the war on drugs and criminality in the country.
His war on drugs, which has already claimed the lives of more than 3,000 individuals, has not just caught the attention of the Filipino people, but clenched the eyes and solicitude of the international community at large.
The United Nations, the US and the EU have all called out Duterte to put a stop to the rising cases of alleged extrajudicial killings and human rights violations in the Philippines. The tough-talking president, who is not really open to criticism and advice, lashed out these bodies through a series of tirades and curses. He also criticized his critics, calling them as hypocrites and feeding them with curses and middle fingers, which has gone tiring. He said he does not care if he is infamous as long as he upholds what he thinks is right.
Duterte, who made clear he never likes to be lectured, even challenged the UN and the EU to go to the Philippines and face him on a debate. He extended this invitation to US President Barrack Obama shortly after. His only condition was he be allowed to ask his own questions. He claims the criticisms against him are baseless, thus, inviting the bodies to investigate the alleged extrajudicial killings in the country.
But what started out as Duterte’s tirades, most of which he took back, seem like would end in breakups and start new friendships.
The good news is, despite Duterte lambasting the EU multiple times in multiple instances, European Union Ambassador Franz Jessen, as reported by Reuters, said fund assistance program to support the rehabilitation of drug addicts would still be extended to the Philippines. Now his is relieving for the time being, but who knows how long the EU can be patient with Duterte’s condemnations.
By the end of September, US Senator Patrick Leahy, the author of the law that prohibits US from giving assistance to countries that have committed to numerous violations of human rights, warned the Philippine Government that if the violations continue to rise, assistance given to the country would have to cease.
Going back to more of his profanities, Duterte called UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon a fool and a devil. At one point, he even threatened to leave the United Nations. Later on he took it back. But recently, he claims he does not care anymore if they withdraw all their assistance. If the Philippines veers away from the United Nations, where will this country find a replacement for all the benefits UN gives?
Being a member of the UN means a country gets aid and assistance especially during natural disasters. The UN also prioritizes the economical development of the nation through letting the country benefit from its agencies, which are the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund. Another is that the health sector of the country would also be strengthened through the World Health Organization. Human rights are also upheld.
If the country pulls out of the UN, we lose all the benefits we are currently enjoying above to make sure our President does not get his dignity scratched. Duterte, however, is positive the country will survive without those aids. He said he would be the first to starve if the country loses its vital assistance from the international allies.
Human rights violations
Calling his supposed enemies hypocrites and telling Obama to go to hell and the EU to purgatory, Duterte claims his critics too have human rights violations.
It is funny how things escalated so quickly from the bodies calling out Duterte to uphold the rule of law and make things right to Duterte faltering alliances and making new ones.
During the ASEAN, Duterte shocked leaders after showing a photo of the Bud Dajo Massacre in Sulu back in the 1900’s, in which American Troops slaughtered Moro resettlements. In a separate speech, he accused the EU of letting thousands of immigrants die outside the borders of the Union.
But if it is only human rights violations that are the case here, then why make allies with China and Russia? In fact, China is known to be the number one country that proliferates human rights violation in all forms: form freedom of speech, association and assembly to freedom of religion. An authoritarian state, China has death penalty and the infamous one-child policy. Human rights lawyers and activists are detained and interrogated, women and people with disabilities are discriminated and torture is legal. As for the totalitarian Russia, activists are imprisoned for 15 years. People are also tortured and discriminated.
It is uncertain what kind of relation the Philippines is going to have with Russia and China. Quite frightening, it is also uncertain what kind of future the Philippines would have without its closest ally and its other supporters. Where is Philippine foreign policy going under the Duterte administration? It is as unpredictable as the country’s Commander-in-chief. Let’s just wish it is not to hell or purgatory just as Mr. Duterte told his critics. And let us all hope it is not as disturbing as how the President talks.
If the brutality on the war on drugs does not end now, if Duterte keeps on firing shots at anyone he likes, if Filipinos continue being killed, if Dutertards keep on proliferating, No one knows where this country will be in six years time. Duterte will eventually lose political capital and might not fulfill his campaign promises. “Better, real change” may never come to the country. Foreign investors may pull out money. Tourism may decline. And if the Philippines wants to be completely independent, how is the government going to answer to the needs of the Filipino people? The country is still largely indebted to the World Bank because of former President Ferdinand Marcos, which Duterte apparently adores. The US is the country’s largest trading partner and provider of development and military aid and defense equipment and it has been supportive of the Philippine’s maritime dispute with China. And yet Duterte is willing to lose its ties with the US. Investors may not be pulling out their money “yet,” but if this continues, who knows if the country would be left with nothing.
The irony continues as the Philippines is embracing countries that care nothing about the rule of law and is pushing away those who uphold it – those who actually care if the Philippines survive. The foreign policy shift is not only scaring away investors, but also Filipinos who care about their future. While it is not impossible that Duterte may succeed in all of plans, he still needs to start to downplay his words and tirades and star apologizing in some occasions. And to some extent, think his decisions through and not look for anymore political divide.
